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理性看待光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)熱

2009-05-15
作者:來源:解放日?qǐng)?bào)

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title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" 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title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)" title="光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)">光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)大會(huì)剛剛落下帷幕。與往年不同的是,今年論壇在全球金融危機(jī)的大背景下,給目前“火爆”的太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)一個(gè)獨(dú)特的視角:

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??? 節(jié)節(jié)攀高的國(guó)際油價(jià)、日益惡化的環(huán)境、全球能源問題……這些使得越來越多的國(guó)家開始實(shí)行“陽(yáng)光計(jì)劃”,開發(fā)太陽(yáng)能資源。光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)作為可再生能源領(lǐng)域的重要生力軍,已成為世界上增長(zhǎng)最快的高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。

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??? 然而由于國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)需求不足,我國(guó)95%以上的光伏產(chǎn)品出口國(guó)外。突如其來的全球金融危機(jī),使國(guó)際光伏市場(chǎng)迅速萎縮,國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)海外訂單頓時(shí)銳減,太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)備受打擊。如何理性看待光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)?如何度過行業(yè)“寒冬”?如何使企業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展?———成了擺在每一家光伏企業(yè)眼前的課題。

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??? 產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛

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??? 太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)“火”了!

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??? 一組數(shù)據(jù)可以看出國(guó)際光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的步伐:2006年全球光伏電源累計(jì)裝機(jī)總?cè)萘窟_(dá)865萬(wàn)千瓦,年產(chǎn)量達(dá)255萬(wàn)千瓦;而2007年全球光伏電源累計(jì)裝機(jī)總?cè)萘窟_(dá)1264萬(wàn)千瓦,年產(chǎn)量達(dá)400萬(wàn)千瓦,年增長(zhǎng)率超過50%。專家預(yù)測(cè),未來10年甚至50年內(nèi),光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的年增長(zhǎng)速度將高達(dá)30%-40%。

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??? 依賴國(guó)際市場(chǎng),國(guó)內(nèi)光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)得到了驚人的發(fā)展。據(jù)中國(guó)科學(xué)院電工研究所嚴(yán)陸光院士介紹,我國(guó)光伏電池的總年產(chǎn)量由2004年的5萬(wàn)千瓦增加到2007年的108萬(wàn)千瓦,占世界總產(chǎn)量的27%左右,光伏組件產(chǎn)量達(dá)172萬(wàn)千瓦,生產(chǎn)企業(yè)達(dá)到50多家。不僅專業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)量增多,而且從原料生產(chǎn)、電池片生產(chǎn)到應(yīng)用系統(tǒng),我國(guó)的太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)已初步形成具有規(guī)?;?、專業(yè)化的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條,并產(chǎn)生了一批具有國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的企業(yè)。目前,無錫尚德、賽維LDK、浙江昱輝、天威英利等10多家公司先后在海外上市。

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??? 根據(jù)國(guó)際專業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)SHELL的預(yù)測(cè),到2050年,太陽(yáng)能在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的比例約為13%~15%;歐盟能源的預(yù)測(cè)更為可觀,到2050年太陽(yáng)能在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中所占比重將達(dá)到28%,其中太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電達(dá)25.5%;到本世紀(jì)末太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電將達(dá)63%。

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??? 目前,我國(guó)光伏電池產(chǎn)業(yè)在多方推動(dòng)之下,預(yù)計(jì)2010年總生產(chǎn)能力可達(dá)到400萬(wàn)千瓦,產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量與價(jià)格將更接近于國(guó)際水平,當(dāng)產(chǎn)品更多用于國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)電時(shí),預(yù)計(jì)到2020年利用太陽(yáng)能的年發(fā)電量達(dá)21.6億度,占一次能源消費(fèi)的8%。

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??? “兩頭在外”的憂慮

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??? 盡管,我國(guó)太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展氣勢(shì)如虹,但繁榮背后也存在著隱憂。

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??? 一直以來,光伏電池的重要原材料———多晶硅主要依賴進(jìn)口。雖然我國(guó)多晶硅產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,產(chǎn)能也火速?gòu)?005年的400噸增長(zhǎng)至2007年的4310噸,但高端的提純技術(shù)還掌握在國(guó)外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者手中。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的生產(chǎn)技術(shù),千噸級(jí)以上的多晶硅生產(chǎn)線才具有規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,而最先進(jìn)的多晶硅大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)技術(shù)仍然掌握在美國(guó)、日本、德國(guó)三國(guó)手中。國(guó)際化工和半導(dǎo)體巨頭們一方面在產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張方面相當(dāng)謹(jǐn)慎,另一方面集體達(dá)成了技術(shù)保密和不對(duì)第三方轉(zhuǎn)讓的協(xié)議。

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??? 就市場(chǎng)而言,我國(guó)太陽(yáng)能企業(yè)的絕大部分產(chǎn)品出口到國(guó)外,國(guó)內(nèi)并沒有真正意義上的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)市場(chǎng)。中國(guó)科學(xué)院電工研究所嚴(yán)陸光院士分析認(rèn)為,市場(chǎng)在外的主要原因在于價(jià)格,雖然光伏電池價(jià)格已有明顯下降,但每千瓦光伏電源的總投資仍然需要5萬(wàn)元左右,每度電能的成本達(dá)5元,仍比煤電高。據(jù)了解,目前太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電的成本大約是生物物質(zhì)發(fā)電的7至12倍,風(fēng)能發(fā)電的6至10倍,更是傳統(tǒng)煤電的11至18倍。也正是由于這一原因,盡管我國(guó)的光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)能較高,但應(yīng)用的裝機(jī)總量?jī)H僅為10萬(wàn)千瓦,主要是農(nóng)村與邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)、通信與照明的小型電源,而規(guī)模達(dá)到1000千瓦的中型聯(lián)網(wǎng)電站僅有幾座在大城市里示范運(yùn)行。?


??? 這種原料和市場(chǎng)“兩頭在外”的尷尬局面,不僅令我國(guó)的太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)處于成本高、利潤(rùn)低的困境,更使整個(gè)行業(yè)面臨著潛在的危機(jī)。

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??? 仔細(xì)分析一下,如果國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)過分依賴國(guó)外市場(chǎng),同時(shí)又盲目地?cái)U(kuò)大項(xiàng)目規(guī)模,當(dāng)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)需求飽和時(shí),產(chǎn)能過剩將令眾多光伏企業(yè)陷入窘境。事實(shí)上,這次席卷全球的金融危機(jī),已經(jīng)將這一把“利劍”懸在了光伏企業(yè)頭頂。例如,如德國(guó)、西班牙兩個(gè)國(guó)家的太陽(yáng)能光伏市場(chǎng)占?xì)W洲60%以上,今年的采購(gòu)計(jì)劃比上年降低了一半左右。海外市場(chǎng)訂單銳減,光伏產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能供過于求,降價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)就成為必然,本已低廉的利潤(rùn)就更少了。

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??? 同時(shí),金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致金融機(jī)構(gòu)紛紛控制信貸規(guī)模,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)縮減資本注入,證券市場(chǎng)行情暴跌,光伏企業(yè)資金鏈高度緊張。目前,我國(guó)有江西賽維、無錫尚德等11家境外上市企業(yè),IPO融資總額達(dá)19.77億美元,總市值曾高達(dá)180億美元,但在這一輪金融危機(jī)中縮水嚴(yán)重。據(jù)分析,國(guó)內(nèi)已有80%的光伏企業(yè)面臨資金短缺問題。

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??? 專家指出,只有千方百計(jì)降低光伏電源的投資與電能成本,才能爭(zhēng)取更大的利潤(rùn)空間。同時(shí),大力挖掘國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng),才能吸收消化快速增長(zhǎng)的產(chǎn)能。

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??? 亟需政策扶持

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??? 其實(shí),無論是提升技術(shù)水平降低成本,還是開拓國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng),如果沒有法規(guī)和政策的強(qiáng)力推動(dòng),太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)很難有較快的發(fā)展。

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??? 放眼國(guó)際,太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展成熟的國(guó)家,光伏企業(yè)都在不同程度上享受了政策扶持。中國(guó)科學(xué)院電工研究所嚴(yán)陸光院士介紹說:“像日本、美國(guó)及歐洲等國(guó)家,都有鼓勵(lì)光伏發(fā)電上網(wǎng)的優(yōu)惠政策。比如說,投資建一個(gè)太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電設(shè)施之后,用戶可以無條件接入電網(wǎng),所發(fā)電量既可以自己用也可以高價(jià)賣給電網(wǎng)從而享受電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼?!?

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??? 世界各國(guó)對(duì)太陽(yáng)能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的扶持力度仍然在加強(qiáng)。日本政府在2008年11月發(fā)布的“太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電普及行動(dòng)計(jì)劃”確定,到2030年,太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電量將達(dá)到2005年的40倍,并在3到5年后,將太陽(yáng)能電池系統(tǒng)的價(jià)格降至目前的一半左右;2009年,日本還專門安排了30億日元的補(bǔ)助金,專項(xiàng)鼓勵(lì)太陽(yáng)能蓄電池的技術(shù)開發(fā)。法國(guó)宣布,大幅提高對(duì)大型商業(yè)屋頂系統(tǒng)所生成的太陽(yáng)能進(jìn)行補(bǔ)償,加快太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電設(shè)施的安裝。目前,美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬承諾將使美國(guó)替代能源產(chǎn)量在未來3年里翻一番,美國(guó)能源部日前宣布為光伏工藝制造的6個(gè)光伏模組孵化計(jì)劃提供1760萬(wàn)美元的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)津貼;美國(guó)最近通過的《聯(lián)邦投資賦稅優(yōu)惠》法案明確,太陽(yáng)能光伏發(fā)電投資額的30%可獲政府現(xiàn)金補(bǔ)助。

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??? 相比之下,我國(guó)在政策扶持方面仍然存在空白。我國(guó)一直沒有實(shí)施《上網(wǎng)電價(jià)法》,相關(guān)光伏項(xiàng)目的立項(xiàng)、補(bǔ)貼等審批也很嚴(yán)格,國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)需求嚴(yán)重不足。在中國(guó),想做一個(gè)發(fā)電項(xiàng)目需要國(guó)家批準(zhǔn),也就是通過發(fā)改委審核,至于電價(jià)多少也是依照項(xiàng)目來審定的,沒有一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的政策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。盡管我國(guó)在2006年實(shí)施了《可再生能源法》,但由于這部法規(guī)中“上網(wǎng)電價(jià)”多為概念性、框架性的政策,因此到目前為止,電力部門還沒有正式接受光伏發(fā)電上網(wǎng),國(guó)內(nèi)已經(jīng)建成的示范項(xiàng)目也還是按照試驗(yàn)項(xiàng)目并網(wǎng)。?


??? 政府支持光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的積極信號(hào)已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。近來,中國(guó)的“太陽(yáng)能屋頂計(jì)劃”為光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)注入強(qiáng)心劑。財(cái)政部聯(lián)合多部委出臺(tái)了《關(guān)于加快推進(jìn)太陽(yáng)能光電建筑應(yīng)用的實(shí)施意見》和《太陽(yáng)能光電建筑應(yīng)用財(cái)政補(bǔ)助資金管理暫行辦法》,同時(shí)還公布《關(guān)于支持加快太陽(yáng)能光電建筑應(yīng)用的政策解讀》,支持開展光電建筑應(yīng)用示范、實(shí)施“太陽(yáng)能屋頂計(jì)劃”以及城市光電建筑一體化應(yīng)用。

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??? 但《意見》只是綱領(lǐng)性文件,更細(xì)化的實(shí)施規(guī)定和方案還有待推出。專家建議,具體政策可以參照國(guó)外成熟經(jīng)驗(yàn),如對(duì)符合條件的光電建筑應(yīng)用予以補(bǔ)助,以部分彌補(bǔ)光電應(yīng)用的初始投入;對(duì)光伏發(fā)電以優(yōu)惠價(jià)格予以全額收購(gòu),對(duì)光伏電池生產(chǎn)企業(yè)予以稅收和信貸上的支持等。

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